# Selected customer P&L cases


Two bounded claim-verification case studies using original official records; no full eight-quarter or population acceptance; original orangebook_evidence.json unchanged.


## CHRW


The productivity story persists; the payroll story is more complicated.

Measured output: FY2025 NAST truckload volume+0.5%, LTL+1.5%, average NAST headcount5158vs5696. Q22026 NAST volume+1.5%, NAST average headcount4671vs5283; global management productivity claim >60% since end2022 is broader Lean AI, not independently causal.

Paid workforce: FY2025 personnel expense fell$86.091m consolidated and$25.632m NAST. Q22026 consolidated average headcount fell10.8% but personnel expense rose$3.150m, primarily incentive pay.

Implementation costs: 2025 restructuring charge$30.405m, including$27.099m severance; cash payments$24.564m. Program bundles AI, automation and facilities. These charges are already in reported operating income. Company-wide purchased/developed software cash outflow$50.915m is not an AI allocation.

Earnings confounders: $42.354m lower pretax Europe disposal expenses explains33.66% of consolidated OI increase arithmetically. NAST rate/mix and transaction gross profit, other cost optimization, incentive pay, scope changes remain.

Who captures: CHRW may retain part of reduced cost-to-serve through operating margin or spend it on service/market share/incentives. Customer/carrier price incidence and external-model invoices are not disclosed.

Thesis change: Stronger evidence of productive deployment and realized personnel-cost improvement than the initial digest-only account; no support for treating all earnings growth as AI or all headcount cuts as cash savings.

Profit status: UNKNOWN: no isolated counterfactual or full AI cost allocation

Still missing: Same-scope shipment/quote-to-load conversion and contribution after errors/rework; Cash wages/benefits and avoided hires attributable to AI, separated from divestiture/Lean operations; AI-specific cloud/model/software depreciation and internal review/integration cost; Contract/provider invoice routing and net price


## CTSH


Contract structure can preserve productivity gains, while transition costs and other drivers obscure AI profit.

Measured output: Official call confirms >30% of development effort AI-assisted, >4000AI engagements, and5% revenue/8% adjusted-OI per employee gains on trailing12month basis. Not a randomized output measure.

Paid workforce: End-Q22026 employees356700vs343800; no company-wide payroll reduction inferred. FY2025 call says merit increases and high bonuses; H12026 CFO affected by higher incentive payments.

Implementation costs: Project Leap expected$230m–$320m total costs; Q2/H1 recognized$84m, including$56m employee separation; paid$28m of separation costs. Program intends to fund AI capabilities/upskilling, not a realized net-saving claim.

Earnings confounders: Q4 margin drivers include NextGen savings, utilization and rupee. FY2025 growth included260bp Belcan. H1 GAAP OI+47m vs adjusted+112m; current$84m charges/$81m obligation reversal and prior$62m property gain reconcile differences.

Who captures: Fixed-price plus transaction/volume revenue increased from55.37% to57.95% of Q2 revenue. Supplier may retain cost reductions within contracted deliverables; competition/renegotiation and outcomes determine customer share. Time-and-materials can pass labor-hour gains through.

Thesis change: Commercial contract migration supports a credible path to retained application/services profit; it also shows why rising productivity is neither a headcount-collapse measure nor a clean external-model-demand measure.

Profit status: UNKNOWN: mixed company metrics and absent AI cost/customer-cash attribution

Still missing: Contract-level before/after accepted output, hours, realized bill and renewal price; AI model/serving/review/error costs and capitalized development amortization by project; Cash savings versus redeployment and reinvestment, excluding acquisition/FX/utilization effects; Customer independently reported realized P&L and external-provider invoices


## Checked calculations


- CHRW-annual-oi: 794.961 - 669.141 = 125.820 USD millions. FY2025 consolidated operating income improvement; not AI attribution

- CHRW-annual-personnel: 1456.249 - 1370.158 = 86.091 USD millions. Reported personnel-expense reduction; includes divestiture, compensation mix and productivity

- CHRW-annual-sga: 639.624 - 564.291 = 75.333 USD millions. Reported SG&A reduction; includes disposal and restructuring effects

- CHRW-annual-agp: 2729.410 - 2765.014 = -35.604 USD millions. Revenue less purchased transport/products, matching adjusted gross profit; declined

- CHRW-annual-bridge: -35.604 + 86.091 + 75.333 = 125.820 USD millions. Exact operating-income bridge; does not attribute any residual to AI

- CHRW-divestiture: 44.462 - (1.194 + 0.914) = 42.354 USD millions. Decline in pretax Europe disposal-related expenses; embedded within personnel/SG&A

- CHRW-divestiture-share: 42.354 / 125.820 * 100 = 33.66237482117310443490701001 percent. One named confounder share of total OI improvement; not a causal partition of all remaining profit

- CHRW-NAST-personnel: 669.611 - 643.979 = 25.632 USD millions. NAST personnel expense decline; scope narrower than consolidated business

- CHRW-NAST-bridge: (1706.329 - 1641.195) + (669.611 - 643.979) - (440.514 - 440.292) = 90.544 USD millions. NAST OI growth90.544; rate/mix, volumes, staffing and allocated technology costs still not AI-specific

- CHRW-q2-headcount: (11471 / 12858 - 1) * 100 = -10.78705864053507543941515010 percent. Quarter-average employee headcount decline; not end-quarter count

- CHRW-q2-personnel: 338.472 - 335.322 = 3.150 USD millions. Personnel expense increased despite lower headcount

- CHRW-q2-oi: 255.743 - 215.919 = 39.824 USD millions. Consolidated Q2 operating income increase

- CTSH-q2-nontm-2026: (2690 + 486) / 5481 * 100 = 57.94563035942346287173873381 percent. Fixed-price plus transaction/volume-based share, Q22026; fixed revenue is not guaranteed retained margin

- CTSH-q2-nontm-2025: (2413 + 491) / 5245 * 100 = 55.36701620591039084842707340 percent. Comparable contract share Q22025

- CTSH-h1-gaap-growth: 1717 - 1670 = 47 USD millions. H1 GAAP operating income change

- CTSH-h1-adjusted-growth: 1720 - 1608 = 112 USD millions. H1 adjusted operating income change; not net AI profit

- CTSH-reconciliation-current: 1717 + 84 - 81 = 1720 USD millions. Current adjusted OI adds Project Leap charges and removes obligation-reversal benefit

- CTSH-reconciliation-prior: 1670 - 62 = 1608 USD millions. Prior adjusted OI removes property-sale gain

- CTSH-headcount: (356700 / 343800 - 1) * 100 = 3.752181500872600349040139600 percent. End-quarter worldwide headcount increased; acquisition/perimeter differences remain

- CTSH-cfo: 832 - 798 = 34 USD millions. H1 CFO increase attributed mainly to lower cash taxes, partly offset by incentive pay


[CHRW-K25](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1043277/000104327726000009/chrw-20251231.htm)


[CHRW-Q226](https://s25.q4cdn.com/568306620/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/Q2-2026-Earnings-Release.pdf)


[CTSH-T425](https://cognizant.q4cdn.com/123993165/files/doc_earnings/2025/q4/transcript/Transcript_CTSHQ4-2025-Earnings-Call.pdf)


[CTSH-Q226](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1058290/000105829026000031/ctsh-20260630.htm)