{
  "schema_version": "customer-pnl-upgrade-v1",
  "cutoff": "2026-09-27",
  "capture_date": "2026-10-23",
  "scope": "Two bounded claim-verification case studies using original official records; no full eight-quarter or population acceptance; original orangebook_evidence.json unchanged.",
  "cases": [
    {
      "actual_ai_profit": null,
      "earnings_confounders": "$42.354m lower pretax Europe disposal expenses explains33.66% of consolidated OI increase arithmetically. NAST rate/mix and transaction gross profit, other cost optimization, incentive pay, scope changes remain.",
      "headline": "The productivity story persists; the payroll story is more complicated.",
      "implementation_costs": "2025 restructuring charge$30.405m, including$27.099m severance; cash payments$24.564m. Program bundles AI, automation and facilities. These charges are already in reported operating income. Company-wide purchased/developed software cash outflow$50.915m is not an AI allocation.",
      "measured_output": "FY2025 NAST truckload volume+0.5%, LTL+1.5%, average NAST headcount5158vs5696. Q22026 NAST volume+1.5%, NAST average headcount4671vs5283; global management productivity claim >60% since end2022 is broader Lean AI, not independently causal.",
      "missing_evidence": [
        "Same-scope shipment/quote-to-load conversion and contribution after errors/rework",
        "Cash wages/benefits and avoided hires attributable to AI, separated from divestiture/Lean operations",
        "AI-specific cloud/model/software depreciation and internal review/integration cost",
        "Contract/provider invoice routing and net price"
      ],
      "paid_workforce": "FY2025 personnel expense fell$86.091m consolidated and$25.632m NAST. Q22026 consolidated average headcount fell10.8% but personnel expense rose$3.150m, primarily incentive pay.",
      "periods": "FY2025 vsFY2024 and Q22026 vsQ22025; selected original records only",
      "profit_status": "UNKNOWN: no isolated counterfactual or full AI cost allocation",
      "role": "AI adopter / logistics intermediary",
      "source_ids": [
        "CHRW-K25",
        "CHRW-Q226"
      ],
      "thesis_change": "Stronger evidence of productive deployment and realized personnel-cost improvement than the initial digest-only account; no support for treating all earnings growth as AI or all headcount cuts as cash savings.",
      "ticker": "CHRW",
      "who_captures": "CHRW may retain part of reduced cost-to-serve through operating margin or spend it on service/market share/incentives. Customer/carrier price incidence and external-model invoices are not disclosed."
    },
    {
      "actual_ai_profit": null,
      "earnings_confounders": "Q4 margin drivers include NextGen savings, utilization and rupee. FY2025 growth included260bp Belcan. H1 GAAP OI+47m vs adjusted+112m; current$84m charges/$81m obligation reversal and prior$62m property gain reconcile differences.",
      "headline": "Contract structure can preserve productivity gains, while transition costs and other drivers obscure AI profit.",
      "implementation_costs": "Project Leap expected$230m–$320m total costs; Q2/H1 recognized$84m, including$56m employee separation; paid$28m of separation costs. Program intends to fund AI capabilities/upskilling, not a realized net-saving claim.",
      "measured_output": "Official call confirms >30% of development effort AI-assisted, >4000AI engagements, and5% revenue/8% adjusted-OI per employee gains on trailing12month basis. Not a randomized output measure.",
      "missing_evidence": [
        "Contract-level before/after accepted output, hours, realized bill and renewal price",
        "AI model/serving/review/error costs and capitalized development amortization by project",
        "Cash savings versus redeployment and reinvestment, excluding acquisition/FX/utilization effects",
        "Customer independently reported realized P&L and external-provider invoices"
      ],
      "paid_workforce": "End-Q22026 employees356700vs343800; no company-wide payroll reduction inferred. FY2025 call says merit increases and high bonuses; H12026 CFO affected by higher incentive payments.",
      "periods": "Official Q42025 call and Q22026/H12026 10-Q, with stated comparable periods; no complete eight-quarter dossier",
      "profit_status": "UNKNOWN: mixed company metrics and absent AI cost/customer-cash attribution",
      "role": "AI adopter / services supplier",
      "source_ids": [
        "CTSH-T425",
        "CTSH-Q226"
      ],
      "thesis_change": "Commercial contract migration supports a credible path to retained application/services profit; it also shows why rising productivity is neither a headcount-collapse measure nor a clean external-model-demand measure.",
      "ticker": "CTSH",
      "who_captures": "Fixed-price plus transaction/volume revenue increased from55.37% to57.95% of Q2 revenue. Supplier may retain cost reductions within contracted deliverables; competition/renegotiation and outcomes determine customer share. Time-and-materials can pass labor-hour gains through."
    }
  ],
  "calculations": [
    {
      "formula": "794.961 - 669.141",
      "id": "CHRW-annual-oi",
      "meaning": "FY2025 consolidated operating income improvement; not AI attribution",
      "source_ids": [
        "CHRW-K25"
      ],
      "unit": "USD millions",
      "value": "125.820"
    },
    {
      "formula": "1456.249 - 1370.158",
      "id": "CHRW-annual-personnel",
      "meaning": "Reported personnel-expense reduction; includes divestiture, compensation mix and productivity",
      "source_ids": [
        "CHRW-K25"
      ],
      "unit": "USD millions",
      "value": "86.091"
    },
    {
      "formula": "639.624 - 564.291",
      "id": "CHRW-annual-sga",
      "meaning": "Reported SG&A reduction; includes disposal and restructuring effects",
      "source_ids": [
        "CHRW-K25"
      ],
      "unit": "USD millions",
      "value": "75.333"
    },
    {
      "formula": "2729.410 - 2765.014",
      "id": "CHRW-annual-agp",
      "meaning": "Revenue less purchased transport/products, matching adjusted gross profit; declined",
      "source_ids": [
        "CHRW-K25"
      ],
      "unit": "USD millions",
      "value": "-35.604"
    },
    {
      "formula": "-35.604 + 86.091 + 75.333",
      "id": "CHRW-annual-bridge",
      "meaning": "Exact operating-income bridge; does not attribute any residual to AI",
      "source_ids": [
        "CHRW-K25"
      ],
      "unit": "USD millions",
      "value": "125.820"
    },
    {
      "formula": "44.462 - (1.194 + 0.914)",
      "id": "CHRW-divestiture",
      "meaning": "Decline in pretax Europe disposal-related expenses; embedded within personnel/SG&A",
      "source_ids": [
        "CHRW-K25"
      ],
      "unit": "USD millions",
      "value": "42.354"
    },
    {
      "formula": "42.354 / 125.820 * 100",
      "id": "CHRW-divestiture-share",
      "meaning": "One named confounder share of total OI improvement; not a causal partition of all remaining profit",
      "source_ids": [
        "CHRW-K25"
      ],
      "unit": "percent",
      "value": "33.66237482117310443490701001"
    },
    {
      "formula": "669.611 - 643.979",
      "id": "CHRW-NAST-personnel",
      "meaning": "NAST personnel expense decline; scope narrower than consolidated business",
      "source_ids": [
        "CHRW-K25"
      ],
      "unit": "USD millions",
      "value": "25.632"
    },
    {
      "formula": "(1706.329 - 1641.195) + (669.611 - 643.979) - (440.514 - 440.292)",
      "id": "CHRW-NAST-bridge",
      "meaning": "NAST OI growth90.544; rate/mix, volumes, staffing and allocated technology costs still not AI-specific",
      "source_ids": [
        "CHRW-K25"
      ],
      "unit": "USD millions",
      "value": "90.544"
    },
    {
      "formula": "(11471 / 12858 - 1) * 100",
      "id": "CHRW-q2-headcount",
      "meaning": "Quarter-average employee headcount decline; not end-quarter count",
      "source_ids": [
        "CHRW-Q226"
      ],
      "unit": "percent",
      "value": "-10.78705864053507543941515010"
    },
    {
      "formula": "338.472 - 335.322",
      "id": "CHRW-q2-personnel",
      "meaning": "Personnel expense increased despite lower headcount",
      "source_ids": [
        "CHRW-Q226"
      ],
      "unit": "USD millions",
      "value": "3.150"
    },
    {
      "formula": "255.743 - 215.919",
      "id": "CHRW-q2-oi",
      "meaning": "Consolidated Q2 operating income increase",
      "source_ids": [
        "CHRW-Q226"
      ],
      "unit": "USD millions",
      "value": "39.824"
    },
    {
      "formula": "(2690 + 486) / 5481 * 100",
      "id": "CTSH-q2-nontm-2026",
      "meaning": "Fixed-price plus transaction/volume-based share, Q22026; fixed revenue is not guaranteed retained margin",
      "source_ids": [
        "CTSH-Q226"
      ],
      "unit": "percent",
      "value": "57.94563035942346287173873381"
    },
    {
      "formula": "(2413 + 491) / 5245 * 100",
      "id": "CTSH-q2-nontm-2025",
      "meaning": "Comparable contract share Q22025",
      "source_ids": [
        "CTSH-Q226"
      ],
      "unit": "percent",
      "value": "55.36701620591039084842707340"
    },
    {
      "formula": "1717 - 1670",
      "id": "CTSH-h1-gaap-growth",
      "meaning": "H1 GAAP operating income change",
      "source_ids": [
        "CTSH-Q226"
      ],
      "unit": "USD millions",
      "value": "47"
    },
    {
      "formula": "1720 - 1608",
      "id": "CTSH-h1-adjusted-growth",
      "meaning": "H1 adjusted operating income change; not net AI profit",
      "source_ids": [
        "CTSH-Q226"
      ],
      "unit": "USD millions",
      "value": "112"
    },
    {
      "formula": "1717 + 84 - 81",
      "id": "CTSH-reconciliation-current",
      "meaning": "Current adjusted OI adds Project Leap charges and removes obligation-reversal benefit",
      "source_ids": [
        "CTSH-Q226"
      ],
      "unit": "USD millions",
      "value": "1720"
    },
    {
      "formula": "1670 - 62",
      "id": "CTSH-reconciliation-prior",
      "meaning": "Prior adjusted OI removes property-sale gain",
      "source_ids": [
        "CTSH-Q226"
      ],
      "unit": "USD millions",
      "value": "1608"
    },
    {
      "formula": "(356700 / 343800 - 1) * 100",
      "id": "CTSH-headcount",
      "meaning": "End-quarter worldwide headcount increased; acquisition/perimeter differences remain",
      "source_ids": [
        "CTSH-Q226"
      ],
      "unit": "percent",
      "value": "3.752181500872600349040139600"
    },
    {
      "formula": "832 - 798",
      "id": "CTSH-cfo",
      "meaning": "H1 CFO increase attributed mainly to lower cash taxes, partly offset by incentive pay",
      "source_ids": [
        "CTSH-Q226"
      ],
      "unit": "USD millions",
      "value": "34"
    }
  ],
  "exact_short_excerpts": [
    {
      "locator": "p3 personnel-expense narrative; parsed text lines94–97",
      "quote": "higher incentive compensation reflecting our strong operating performance",
      "source_id": "CHRW-Q226"
    },
    {
      "locator": "p3; parsed text lines101–103",
      "quote": "fixed-bid and transaction-based work now represent more than 50% of our revenue",
      "source_id": "CTSH-T425"
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "CHRW-K25",
      "period": "FY2025 and FY2024",
      "available_at": "2026-02-13",
      "accessed_at": "2026-10-23T14:41:58.207853+00:00",
      "locator": "Form10-K: MD&A consolidated/NAST results pp28–31; cash flows; Note14 Restructuring pp68–70; Note15 Divestitures pp70–71",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1043277/000104327726000009/chrw-20251231.htm"
    },
    {
      "id": "CHRW-Q226",
      "period": "Q22026 and Q22025; H12026 and H12025",
      "available_at": "2026-07-29",
      "accessed_at": "2026-10-23T14:41:58.227496+00:00",
      "locator": "Release pp1–5 narrative; p15 income statement; p16 segment/headcount tables",
      "url": "https://s25.q4cdn.com/568306620/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/Q2-2026-Earnings-Release.pdf"
    },
    {
      "id": "CTSH-T425",
      "period": "Q42025/FY2025",
      "available_at": "2026-02-04",
      "accessed_at": "2026-10-23T14:41:58.391775+00:00",
      "locator": "Official-hosted corrected call transcript: pp3–4 productivity, p7 Belcan growth, p8 margin drivers, p9 cash flow",
      "url": "https://cognizant.q4cdn.com/123993165/files/doc_earnings/2025/q4/transcript/Transcript_CTSHQ4-2025-Earnings-Call.pdf"
    },
    {
      "id": "CTSH-Q226",
      "period": "Q22026/Q22025; H12026/H12025",
      "available_at": "2026-07-29",
      "accessed_at": "2026-10-23T14:41:58.403496+00:00",
      "locator": "Note2 contract-type revenue pp11–12; Note4 Project Leap p14; MD&A employees p27; operating measures and reconciliation pp35–40; cash flow p41",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1058290/000105829026000031/ctsh-20260630.htm"
    }
  ]
}