{ "schema_version": 1, "as_of": "2026-10-22", "sector_horizon": "2027-06-30", "company_horizon": "calendar 2027", "classification": "Supplied-model reconstruction; scenario outputs, not calibrated probabilities or investment recommendations", "deck_claims": { "price_compression": 0.92, "constraint": 0.62, "joint_shock": 0.4, "systemic_crash": 0.12, "status": "attributed claims; original simulation not supplied" }, "reconstructed_audit": { "as_of": "2026-10-22", "endpoint": "2027-06-30", "draws": 250000, "seed": 20261022, "caveat": "Conditional model frequencies; not empirical default probabilities or a replication of V2.", "probabilities": { "pricecurrent": { "p": 0.146544, "numerical_95_interval": [ 0.14516314559178603, 0.14793571653465973 ] }, "pricepeak": { "p": 0.93604, "numerical_95_interval": [ 0.9350741494398206, 0.9369924505284487 ] }, "scoreflag": { "p": 0.571544, "numerical_95_interval": [ 0.5696031193793062, 0.5734826819878388 ] }, "constraint": { "p": 0.41094, "numerical_95_interval": [ 0.40901276103622314, 0.41286997588430235 ] }, "joint": { "p": 0.07948, "numerical_95_interval": [ 0.07842616252620116, 0.08054676055733107 ] }, "tail": { "p": 0.021816, "numerical_95_interval": [ 0.021250672432903326, 0.022396022734450866 ] }, "scorejoint": { "p": 0.130444, "numerical_95_interval": [ 0.12912947884176604, 0.13176987805697324 ] }, "scoretail": { "p": 0.03556, "numerical_95_interval": [ 0.03484117384763768, 0.03629309895012633 ] } }, "predictive_quantiles": { "jobs": { "p2_5": 0.3771953619513364, "p10": 0.5845660455917597, "p50": 1.3080040045749635, "p90": 2.551064706905711, "p97_5": 3.3400963953881186 }, "tokens": { "p2_5": 0.3319619211667746, "p10": 0.5799507775899166, "p50": 1.6470117080260263, "p90": 4.056764873794501, "p97_5": 5.905366506167045 }, "revenue": { "p2_5": 0.2050441659626325, "p10": 0.39502588949457085, "p50": 1.3512223498660596, "p90": 3.9396017341210463, "p97_5": 6.177339441630439 }, "util": { "p2_5": 0.14371034960939377, "p10": 0.20099487156020934, "p50": 0.46165315102546667, "p90": 1.0, "p97_5": 1.0 }, "supply_work": { "p2_5": 0.5224445550779584, "p10": 0.8248341594365669, "p50": 2.166128397001767, "p90": 4.975251319820211, "p97_5": 6.9584410783524415 }, "funding": { "p2_5": 13.185188480831428, "p10": 13.587277263076613, "p50": 14.578748872297716, "p90": 15.571769840928692, "p97_5": 15.973668642798227 }, "labs": { "p2_5": 109.41775142935695, "p10": 114.77640212095078, "p50": 128.01668170269713, "p90": 141.23630315897847, "p97_5": 146.5974869222476 } }, "scenario": { "1": 0.58906, "2": 0.33146, "3": 0.057664, "4": 0.021816 }, "scorescenario": { "1": 0.428456, "2": 0.4411, "3": 0.094884, "4": 0.03556 }, "model_specification_quantiles": { "note": "Sensitivity distribution over128 analyst weight/cutoff choices; not a calibrated posterior.", "p2_5_p10_p50_p90_p97_5": [ [ 0.3566792, 0.10175580000000001, 0.0288839 ], [ 0.3858488, 0.10644200000000001, 0.030610000000000002 ], [ 0.562372, 0.13039, 0.0356 ], [ 0.7368808, 0.14598999999999998, 0.0386632 ], [ 0.7652942, 0.1498919, 0.03952 ] ], "columns": [ "score", "scorejoint", "scorethin" ] } }, "valuation": { "gdp_bn_annual": 32563, "equity_gdp_anchor": 0.1, "equity_bn": 3256.3, "sales_multiple": 15, "required_revenue_bn": 217.08666666666667, "mixed_current_run_rate_bn": 117.2, "classification": "illustrative stock/flow valuation anchor; not consensus" }, "runway_contract": { "classification": "Scenario cash path; actual borrower runway UNAVAILABLE", "formula": "cash[t] = cash[t-1] + operating cash flow[t] + available executed financing[t] - cash capex[t] - principal due[t] - incremental financing costs[t]", "default_period": "quarter", "cash_units": "USD billion", "timing_assumed": true, "actuals_missing": [ "January 2027 unrestricted borrower cash", "monthly cash receipts and capex/maturity calendar", "executed funding availability and conditions", "covenants, recourse, and priority waterfall" ], "limits": "A cash-floor breach is not a legal insolvency date. Do not include optional rescue or backlog as available cash. OCF already includes fixed operating costs and operating cash interest; gross-contribution-margin variants must instead deduct them explicitly and not also apply OCF margin." }, "interactive_defaults": { "accepted_jobs_multiple": 1.2644007155635064, "tokens_per_job_multiple": 1.1, "net_price": 0.55, "current_price": 0.68, "capacity_growth": 0.4, "performance_multiple": 1.5, "busy_compute_multiple": 1.1884300850070215, "baseline_utilization": 0.72, "cash_revenue_bn": 24, "ocf_margin": 0.4, "capex_bn": 18, "principal_bn": 6.18, "opening_cash_bn": 2, "cash_floor_bn": 1, "executed_funding_bn": 14 }, "must_display": [ "Net effective price already incorporates mix, caching and discounts. Do not subtract them again.", "Potential demand can exceed capacity. Unserved work is not recognized revenue.", "OCF includes existing operating cash interest. Add only incremental financing costs separately.", "Backlog and commitments are not cash; availability and payment dates matter.", "Source verification statuses in this extracted file are inherited from the supplied model, not newly certified.", "The thin-bridge proxy is not a systemic-crash probability." ], "controls": { "scenario": 2, "n_draws": 512, "seed": 20261022, "baseline_price": 0.68, "peak_price": 1.15, "adoption0": 0.559, "frontier0": 0.45, "cache0": 0.85, "success0": 0.55, "blocked0": 0.65, "util0": 0.72, "months": 9, "rho_global": 0.1, "rho_group": 0.35, "wc": 0.5, "wp": 0.3, "wf": 0.2, "score_cut": 0.492, "price_drop": 0.35, "spend_cut": 0.1, "frontier_cut": 0.4, "util_cut": 0.7, "target_cut": 0.8, "refi_cut": 0.14, "bridge_cut": 250, "systemic_cut": 200, "n_fin": 2, "input_v2": 0.75, "cache_v2": 0.85, "input_agent": 0.99, "cache_agent": 0.9090909090909092, "long_haiku": 0, "price_profile": 2, "pue": 1.4, "hours": 8760, "kw_per_gw": 1000000, "kwh_per_twh": 1000000000, "token_unit": 1000000000000000.0, "million": 1000000.0, "billion": 1000000000.0, "pwr_cache": 0.05, "pwr_output": 5, "train_share": 0.3, "idle_watt": 0.35, "api_share": 0.6, "gdp": 32563, "gdp_anchor": 0.1, "sales_multiple": 15, "oai_rr": 50, "ant_q3": 16.8, "oai_target": 70, "ant_target": 90, "google_tpm": 22, "ai_twh_2027": 258, "revenue_scale": 100, "infra_capital": 500, "gpu_share": 0.7, "gpu_life": 4, "shell_life": 15, "cash_margin": 0.6, "roic": 0.1, "old_rate": 0.085, "fee": 0.02, "debt_share": 0.7, "half_year": 0.5, "opening_cash": 2, "cash_floor": 1, "annual_funding": 14, "macro_deploy": 0.3, "future_fcf": 0, "new_macro_raise": 0, "spec_count": 128, "spec_weight_spread": 0.25, "spec_threshold_spread": 0.06 }, "assumptions": [ { "id": 1, "name": "Paid adoption growth", "block": "Consumption", "base": 0.03, "bear": -0.02, "bull": 0.08, "limitation": "Ramp adoption level is measured; future +3pp is not estimated.", "mechanism": "New customers / churn / saturation", "source_ids": "S04", "unit": "pp fraction" }, { "id": 2, "name": "Paid task-volume growth", "block": "Consumption", "base": 0.2, "bear": -0.5, "bull": 1.0, "limitation": "V2 does not define per-customer vs total. Engine treats as per adopter; explicit convention.", "mechanism": "Existing-customer usage / new workflows / completed backlog", "source_ids": "S04;S06", "unit": "fraction" }, { "id": 3, "name": "Compute intensity / verified job", "block": "Consumption", "base": 1.1, "bear": 0.6, "bull": 2.2, "limitation": "Interpreted as raw-token-equivalent intensity; energy then adjusted separately.", "mechanism": "Reasoning depth / retries / verification / efficiency", "source_ids": "S06;S23", "unit": "x" }, { "id": 4, "name": "Frontier-token share", "block": "Consumption", "base": 0.4, "bear": 0.25, "bull": 0.55, "limitation": "Token share is not dollar share; not applied as a second price cut.", "mechanism": "Routing share / price-performance / constrained tasks", "source_ids": "S05", "unit": "fraction" }, { "id": 5, "name": "Effective price / 1M tokens", "block": "Consumption", "base": 0.55, "bear": 0.3, "bull": 0.85, "limitation": "Already net effective price; no second caching or off-peak discount in spend model.", "mechanism": "List prices / input-output mix / caches / discounts", "source_ids": "S05;S07;S08;S09", "unit": "USD/M" }, { "id": 6, "name": "Cache / reuse share", "block": "Consumption", "base": 0.87, "bear": 0.93, "bull": 0.75, "limitation": "Engine uses cached/input; OpenRouter cached/total ~90% has different denominator.", "mechanism": "Prompt repetition / hit rate / prefix policy", "source_ids": "S06", "unit": "fraction" }, { "id": 7, "name": "Verified success rate", "block": "Consumption", "base": 0.55, "bear": 0.35, "bull": 0.75, "limitation": "Benchmark scores do not validate representative production success.", "mechanism": "Task difficulty / reliability / acceptance test", "source_ids": "S03;S23", "unit": "fraction" }, { "id": 8, "name": "Review + error burden", "block": "Consumption", "base": 0.45, "bear": 0.8, "bull": 0.2, "limitation": "Fraction of human baseline cost; anecdote is not a measured average.", "mechanism": "Human review / exceptions / expected losses", "source_ids": "S22;S23", "unit": "fraction" }, { "id": 9, "name": "Work blocked within12months", "block": "Consumption", "base": 0.65, "bear": 0.85, "bull": 0.4, "limitation": "Judgmental blocked share, not90% unbenchmarked hours.", "mechanism": "Wet labs / integrations / trust / liability", "source_ids": "S02;S03;S23", "unit": "fraction" }, { "id": 10, "name": "Energized capacity growth", "block": "Production", "base": 0.4, "bear": 0.7, "bull": 0.2, "limitation": "Demand forecasts do not verify a supply inventory;50–60% on-time not equal50–60% lost supply.", "mechanism": "Energization / delivery / network / cooling", "source_ids": "S16;S17", "unit": "fraction" }, { "id": 11, "name": "Performance / watt gain", "block": "Production", "base": 1.5, "bear": 2.0, "bull": 1.2, "limitation": "Single composite efficiency factor; do not also count same algorithm gains elsewhere.", "mechanism": "Hardware / kernels / quantization", "source_ids": "S19;S23", "unit": "x" }, { "id": 12, "name": "Serving utilization", "block": "Production", "base": 0.72, "bear": 0.6, "bull": 0.85, "limitation": "Unobserved scenario input. Physical model derives utilization separately; compare, do not multiply twice.", "mechanism": "Paid loads / idle windows / balancing", "source_ids": "S23", "unit": "fraction" }, { "id": 13, "name": "Off-peak discount", "block": "Production", "base": 0.35, "bear": 0.5, "bull": 0.15, "limitation": "Discount is observed for a provider; aggregate discount path remains judgmental.", "mechanism": "Marginal price / scheduleability / spare capacity", "source_ids": "S11", "unit": "fraction" }, { "id": 14, "name": "Training / RL compute growth", "block": "Production", "base": 0.2, "bear": -0.2, "bull": 0.7, "limitation": "No raw lab training telemetry; decline is allowed, not asserted.", "mechanism": "Research runs / data / evaluations / strategic budgets", "source_ids": "S23", "unit": "fraction" }, { "id": 15, "name": "Frontier capability gain", "block": "Production", "base": 1.4, "bear": 1.1, "bull": 2.0, "limitation": "No automatic conversion of benchmark gain into spend; enters score only.", "mechanism": "Task breadth / reliability / verified skill", "source_ids": "S03;S23", "unit": "x" }, { "id": 16, "name": "Lab revenue / target", "block": "Finance", "base": 0.8, "bear": 0.65, "bull": 0.95, "limitation": "Run-rate vs future target is not an observed miss; same-period target needed.", "mechanism": "Growth / mix / price / budget conversion", "source_ids": "S14;S15", "unit": "fraction" }, { "id": 17, "name": "Marginal refinancing cost", "block": "Finance", "base": 0.11, "bear": 0.15, "bull": 0.07, "limitation": "Apply to refinancing and incremental capital, not entire fixed-coupon debt.", "mechanism": "Base rates / spread / collateral / tenor", "source_ids": "S12;S13", "unit": "fraction annual" }, { "id": 18, "name": "Discretionary bridge capacity", "block": "Finance", "base": 300, "bear": 150, "bull": 500, "limitation": "Not fungible bailout cash. Do not add cash stock and full FCF without a period bridge.", "mechanism": "Liquid assets / FCF / other claims / willingness", "source_ids": "S27;S23", "unit": "USD bn" } ], "deterministic_cases": [ { "capacity": 3.4, "case": "bear", "classification": "scenario, not realized revenue or fleet telemetry", "compute": 0.2662747313358589, "constraint": 1, "finance": 3, "funding": 16.38, "inference": 0.03753533047979845, "jobs": 0.13148479427549195, "joint": 1, "labs": 104.0, "required_util": 0.056387590165240704, "revenue": 0.034804798484689044, "scenario": 4, "supply_work": 17.73439859851353, "tail": 1, "tokens": 0.07889087656529517, "unserved_compute": 0.0, "util": 0.056387590165240704 }, { "capacity": 2.0999999999999996, "case": "base", "classification": "scenario, not realized revenue or fleet telemetry", "compute": 1.1884300850070215, "constraint": 0, "finance": 0, "funding": 14.579999999999998, "inference": 1.1834715500100308, "jobs": 1.2644007155635064, "joint": 0, "labs": 128.0, "required_util": 0.40746174343097885, "revenue": 1.1249447542881197, "scenario": 1, "supply_work": 2.4542181348845893, "tail": 0, "tokens": 1.3908407871198571, "unserved_compute": 0.0, "util": 0.40746174343097885 }, { "capacity": 1.44, "case": "bull", "classification": "scenario, not realized revenue or fleet telemetry", "compute": 13.719225163080491, "constraint": 0, "finance": 0, "funding": 12.78, "inference": 18.87032166154356, "jobs": 5.344423018841622, "joint": 0, "labs": 152.0, "required_util": 6.859612581540246, "revenue": 14.697163301814461, "scenario": 1, "supply_work": 0.145780827723577, "tail": 0, "tokens": 11.75773064145157, "unserved_compute": 11.719225163080491, "util": 1.0 } ], "rate_cards": [ { "cache": 0.25, "cell": "Prices_Mix!B7:G7", "effective_v2": 13.784375, "energy_kwh_per_million": 1.0, "inherited_verification": "Primary launch", "input": 10.0, "name": "Fable 5.1", "output": 50.0, "source_id": "S07" }, { "cache": 0.2, "cell": "Prices_Mix!B8:G8", "effective_v2": 5.577500000000001, "energy_kwh_per_million": 0.6, "inherited_verification": "Primary rate card", "input": 4.0, "name": "Opus 5.5", "output": 20.0, "source_id": "S08" }, { "cache": 0.2, "cell": "Prices_Mix!B9:G9", "effective_v2": 2.8525, "energy_kwh_per_million": 0.3, "inherited_verification": "V2 inherited", "input": 2.0, "name": "GPT-6 Sol", "output": 10.0, "source_id": "S10" }, { "cache": 0.01, "cell": "Prices_Mix!B10:G10", "effective_v2": 0.142625, "energy_kwh_per_million": 0.1, "inherited_verification": "Primary launch", "input": 0.1, "name": "Haiku 5.5 <=100k", "output": 0.5, "source_id": "S09" }, { "cache": 0.003, "cell": "Prices_Mix!B11:G11", "effective_v2": 0.1687875, "energy_kwh_per_million": 0.1, "inherited_verification": "V2 inherited", "input": 0.15, "name": "DeepSeek Flash off-peak", "output": 0.6, "source_id": "S11" }, { "cache": 0.05, "cell": "Prices_Mix!B12:G12", "effective_v2": 0.713125, "energy_kwh_per_million": 0.1, "inherited_verification": "Primary launch", "input": 0.5, "name": "Haiku 5.5 >100k", "output": 2.5, "source_id": "S09" } ], "token_power": [ { "busy_facility_average_gw": 3.7599765673227328, "busy_it_average_gw": 2.6856975480876666, "busy_it_twh": 23.52671052124796, "classification": "scenario energy coefficients; not measured demand", "deck_mixed_basis_share": 0.12766432065793465, "matched_it_share": 0.09118880046995333, "mix": "Premium-heavy", "tokens_quadrillion": 69.19620741543517 }, { "busy_facility_average_gw": 5.388273795627042, "busy_it_average_gw": 3.848766996876459, "busy_it_twh": 33.71519889263778, "classification": "scenario energy coefficients; not measured demand", "deck_mixed_basis_share": 0.18295069166547628, "matched_it_share": 0.13067906547534022, "mix": "Routed enterprise", "tokens_quadrillion": 180.2951812440523 }, { "busy_facility_average_gw": 9.015342074840314, "busy_it_average_gw": 6.439530053457368, "busy_it_twh": 56.41028326828654, "classification": "scenario energy coefficients; not measured demand", "deck_mixed_basis_share": 0.3061023123085316, "matched_it_share": 0.2186445087918083, "mix": "Commodity-heavy", "tokens_quadrillion": 437.2890175836166 } ], "funding_cases": [ { "capex": 15.0, "case": "no_shock", "classification": "illustrative calendar 2027; not guidance", "gross_funding": 7.820405616224649, "growth_funding": 1.640405616224649, "incremental_financing_cost": 0.140405616224649, "ocf": 13.5, "ocf_margin": 0.45, "principal": 6.18, "refi_rate": 0.07, "revenue": 30.0, "simple_funding": 7.68 }, { "capex": 18.0, "case": "blip", "classification": "illustrative calendar 2027; not guidance", "gross_funding": 15.257414248021105, "growth_funding": 9.077414248021105, "incremental_financing_cost": 0.677414248021108, "ocf": 9.600000000000001, "ocf_margin": 0.4, "principal": 6.18, "refi_rate": 0.11, "revenue": 24.0, "simple_funding": 14.579999999999998 }, { "capex": 22.0, "case": "full_shock", "classification": "illustrative calendar 2027; not guidance", "gross_funding": 23.345988216389927, "growth_funding": 17.165988216389927, "incremental_financing_cost": 1.46598821638993, "ocf": 6.3, "ocf_margin": 0.35, "principal": 6.18, "refi_rate": 0.15, "revenue": 18.0, "simple_funding": 21.88 } ], "quarterly_base": [ { "cash_headroom_bn": -0.6943535620052765, "closing_cash_bn": 0.30564643799472346, "quarter": 1 }, { "cash_headroom_bn": -2.100707124010553, "closing_cash_bn": -1.1007071240105528, "quarter": 2 }, { "cash_headroom_bn": -2.2230606860158293, "closing_cash_bn": -1.2230606860158293, "quarter": 3 }, { "cash_headroom_bn": -0.25741424802110524, "closing_cash_bn": 0.7425857519788948, "quarter": 4 } ], "macro_bridge": { "gdp_baseline_trillion": 30, "classification": "explicit illustrative rounded annual nominal GDP baseline", "incremental_value_share_range": [ 0.1, 0.2 ], "incremental_value_added_trillion_range": [ 3, 6 ], "provider_capture_share_default": 0.1, "provider_captured_value_trillion_range": [ 0.3, 0.6 ], "formula": "incremental value added = GDP baseline × incremental share; provider captured value = incremental value added × capture share", "limits": "Value added, provider revenue and consumer surplus are distinct. Provider capture is a hypothetical allocation, not an observed revenue pool. Do not sum lab, cloud, chip and customer revenues as GDP.", "official_reference": { "gdp_trillion": 30.8613, "period": "2025 annual actual, revised", "source": "CEA/JEC Economic Indicators September 2026, data as of October 7, PDF page3 / printed page1", "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/ECONI-2026-09/pdf/ECONI-2026-09.pdf", "vintage_layer": "after historical September 27 cutoff", "incremental_value_added_trillion_range": [ 3.08613, 6.17226 ] } }, "source_register": [ { "id": "S01", "name": "V2 presentation", "type": "User conversation artifact", "limitation": "18 ranges are judgments; original weights/draws are absent.", "url": null, "used_for": "Slides 1–33; primary specification for this workbook", "inherited_recheck_status": "Read in full" }, { "id": "S02", "name": "Attached research paper", "type": "User-supplied research", "limitation": "Not a calibrated prior; model source and event definition incomplete.", "url": null, "used_for": "pp. 17–20: 78.35% and model; p.21: unknown_url", "inherited_recheck_status": "Read supplied text/images" }, { "id": "S03", "name": "Mercor Benchmark Map", "type": "Primary benchmark study", "limitation": "Coverage is not a model failure rate or economic-addressability estimate.", "url": "https://www.mercor.com/research/labor-index/benchmark-map/", "used_for": "208/923 occupations; 924/18,797 tasks; 29 benchmarks", "inherited_recheck_status": "Verified retrieved text" }, { "id": "S04", "name": "Ramp AI Index October", "type": "Primary transaction-derived aggregate", "limitation": "Non-random platform sample; revised vendor coverage; volatile top-1% cohort.", "url": "https://ramp.com/data/ai-index-oct-2026", "used_for": "55.9% paid adoption; $9,568 top-1% spend; two flat months", "inherited_recheck_status": "Verified retrieved text" }, { "id": "S05", "name": "Ramp AI Index September", "type": "Primary source cited by V2", "limitation": "No downloaded transaction panel; no causal elasticity estimate.", "url": "https://ramp.com/data/", "used_for": "V2 slide14: $1.15 to $0.68; frontier 53% to45%", "inherited_recheck_status": "V2-sourced; exact page unresolved" }, { "id": "S06", "name": "OpenRouter Cache is Crucial", "type": "Primary platform telemetry", "limitation": "Cache rate uses prompt denominator; total-token share is different; excludes resellers.", "url": "https://openrouter.ai/data/newsletter/cache-is-crucial", "used_for": "7x agent/human tokens; ~90% cached total; ~1% output", "inherited_recheck_status": "Verified retrieved text" }, { "id": "S07", "name": "Anthropic Fable 5.1 launch", "type": "Primary vendor rate card", "limitation": "Vendor task savings are not independent productivity estimates.", "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/claude-fable-and-mythos-5-1", "used_for": "$10 input/$50 output; cached reads $0.25/M", "inherited_recheck_status": "Verified retrieved text" }, { "id": "S08", "name": "Anthropic Opus pricing", "type": "Primary vendor rate card", "limitation": "List price excludes bespoke discounts, tool fees and throughput commitments.", "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/claude/opus", "used_for": "$4 input/$20 output/$0.20 cache reads", "inherited_recheck_status": "Verified retrieved text" }, { "id": "S09", "name": "Anthropic Haiku 5.5 launch", "type": "Primary vendor rate card", "limitation": "V2 used short-context tier; long-context rates are 5x. Request mix is not token mix.", "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/claude-haiku-5-5", "used_for": "<=100k: $0.10/$0.50/$0.01; >100k: $0.50/$2.50/$0.05", "inherited_recheck_status": "Verified retrieved text" }, { "id": "S10", "name": "OpenAI enterprise rate card", "type": "Primary source cited by V2", "limitation": "Enterprise rate card is not necessarily API realized revenue; do not substitute GPT-6.1.", "url": "https://help.openai.com/en/articles/20001415-chatgpt-rate-card-enterprise-token-based-pricing", "used_for": "V2 GPT-6 Sol $2/$10; cache price $0.20 inferred from V2 arithmetic", "inherited_recheck_status": "V2-sourced; not reverified" }, { "id": "S11", "name": "DeepSeek API rates", "type": "Primary source cited by V2", "limitation": "Pricing is not evidence of utilization, equivalent quality or marginal cost.", "url": "https://api-docs.deepseek.com/quick_start/pricing/", "used_for": "Flash off-peak $0.15/$0.60/$0.003; 50% discount", "inherited_recheck_status": "V2-sourced; fetch unavailable" }, { "id": "S12", "name": "CoreWeave Q2 2026 10-Q", "type": "SEC filing", "limitation": "Most historical amounts below retain V2 rounded values; no new covenant certification.", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1769628/000176962826000366/crwv-20260630.htm", "used_for": "June30 cash $5.524B; restricted cash excluded; 98% committed", "inherited_recheck_status": "Partial primary retrieval + V2" }, { "id": "S13", "name": "CoreWeave credit selloff", "type": "Reuters financial reporting", "limitation": "Secondary yield is not coupon; commitments are not all drawn debt.", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/coreweave-debt-selloff-poses-limited-risk-global-banks-jp-morgan-says-2026-10-20/", "used_for": "~16% secondary yield; headline ~$50B includes commitments", "inherited_recheck_status": "Verified retrieved report" }, { "id": "S14", "name": "OpenAI revenue and target", "type": "Bloomberg report cited by V2", "limitation": "Run rate versus future target is not yet a realized year-end miss.", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-09/openai-expects-70-billion-in-annualized-revenue-by-end-of-2026", "used_for": "September annualized $50B; year-end target at least $70B", "inherited_recheck_status": "V2-sourced; not reverified" }, { "id": "S15", "name": "Anthropic Q3 investor meeting", "type": "Reuters report cited by V2", "limitation": "Quarterly annualization differs from exit ARR; cash conversion unknown.", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/investors-temper-anthropic-ipo-valuation-expectations-over-revenue-growth-2026-10-15/", "used_for": "Q3 revenue $16.8B; sequential growth45%", "inherited_recheck_status": "V2-sourced; not reverified" }, { "id": "S16", "name": "Gartner electricity forecast", "type": "Original industry forecast", "limitation": "Server-only; cooling separately shown at159,195,243 TWh; not installed nameplate MW.", "url": "https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2026-06-10-gartner-says-data-center-electricity-demand-to-grow-26-percent-in-2026", "used_for": "AI optimized server TWh:95,175,258 for2025–27", "inherited_recheck_status": "Verified retrieved table" }, { "id": "S17", "name": "Goldman Sachs US DC power", "type": "Original industry forecast", "limitation": "Power demand forecast is not an independently measured supply inventory.", "url": "https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/us-data-center-power-demand-projected-to-double-by-2027", "used_for": "V2:31/41/66GW2025–27;50–60%on-time", "inherited_recheck_status": "Page retrieved; V2 numbers retained" }, { "id": "S18", "name": "BEA nominal GDP", "type": "Primary agency cited by V2", "limitation": "GDP is a yearly flow; equity value is a stock. 10% comparison is only a heuristic.", "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product", "used_for": "V2 nominal GDP $32.563T annualized", "inherited_recheck_status": "V2-sourced; not reverified" }, { "id": "S19", "name": "Joule inference energy study", "type": "Research paper cited by V2", "limitation": "Tier coefficients 1.0/0.6/0.1 kWh/M are scenario assumptions, not verified measurements.", "url": "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542435126001145", "used_for": "V2 references this for energy context", "inherited_recheck_status": "Not retrieved; no tier validation" }, { "id": "S20", "name": "Apollo slowing token spend", "type": "Original commentary cited by user/V2", "limitation": "Do not count a retelling of Ramp as independent demand evidence.", "url": "https://www.apollo.com/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/slowing-token-spend-shows-compute-demand-is-not-unlimited", "used_for": "Qualitative context only; no distinct numeric calibration", "inherited_recheck_status": "Unavailable on recheck" }, { "id": "S21", "name": "Polymarket Anthropic IPO", "type": "Prediction market cited by V2", "limitation": "Not an enterprise-demand probability; timestamp/liquidity/contract resolution matter.", "url": "https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-anthropics-ipo-valuation-be", "used_for": "V2 bin $2–2.25T:32.9% to5.4%", "inherited_recheck_status": "V2 snapshots; not reverified" }, { "id": "S22", "name": "Sam Altman / Every interview", "type": "Anecdote in V2", "limitation": "Not a controlled productivity study. Not used to estimate enterprise savings.", "url": null, "used_for": "~1hour/day interpretation;16hours/day user assumption", "inherited_recheck_status": "Not independently quantified" }, { "id": "S23", "name": "V2 scenario judgments", "type": "Analyst assumptions in deck", "limitation": "Not confidence limits; evidence anchors do not validate endpoints.", "url": null, "used_for": "18 bear/base/bull endpoints", "inherited_recheck_status": "Transcribed exactly" }, { "id": "S24", "name": "Workbook construction assumptions", "type": "Explicit analyst modeling choices", "limitation": "Not empirical estimates; no parameter fitted to force62%.", "url": null, "used_for": "Score weights, correlations, thresholds, cohort bases, share of financing", "inherited_recheck_status": "New and editable" }, { "id": "S25", "name": "Google Q2 direct API volume", "type": "Primary source cited by V2", "limitation": "One provider's gross token volume, not global paid token demand.", "url": "https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/message-ceo/alphabet-earnings-q2-2026/", "used_for": "22Btokens/minute; normalized11.5632Q/year", "inherited_recheck_status": "V2-sourced; not reverified" }, { "id": "S26", "name": "Anthropic pricing docs", "type": "Primary cached documentation", "limitation": "Newer model launch pages take precedence; stale table not used for5.5.", "url": "https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing", "used_for": "Older table omits5.5; 50%batch discount documented", "inherited_recheck_status": "Retrieved but stale for5.5" }, { "id": "S27", "name": "V1 mega-cap liquid assets", "type": "Prior report/deck compilation", "limitation": "Gross marketable assets mix dates/classes; not a fungible bailout pool.", "url": null, "used_for": "Alphabet242.5;Apple146.5;Meta90.3;MSFT76.8;NVDA56.6 $B", "inherited_recheck_status": "Inherited; not reverified" } ] }